BirdLife International's new scientific publication
The Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds marks a major advance in our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on wildlife. This study combines field data with climate simulation modelling to map the potential geographical ranges of most European breeding bird species at the end of the 21st century. It shows the results in maps for each species.
SOME KEY FACTS ON THE RESEARCH CARRIED OUT FOR THE ATLAS
The Atlas combines field data of current bird distribution with climate simulation modelling to map the potential geographical ranges of most European breeding bird species at the end of the 21st century.
The Atlas describes the current breeding range of each species in Europe in terms of three measure of climate: summer warmth / winter cold / water availability. Together these indicators form the ‘climate space’ occupied by each species.
The Atlas then combines this ‘climate space’ information with models projecting the late 21st century climate of Europe, under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario (for the maps the “HadCM3 B2” scenario was used, which projects a 3.3°C increase in average global temperature above pre-industrial levels and a doubling of atmospheric CO² concentration). Under these conditions, it then predicts the potential future range of the species if this scenario were to happen.
Key Points
The climate change projections are obviously subject to uncertainties, but they are developed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which has global credibility and received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.
The projections in the Atlas are not predictions of actual future range, but show where suitable climate conditions (climate space) are likely to be present.
The Atlas is more accurate for species with a strong dependency between occurrence and climatic conditions, for others there are greater uncertainties.
The Atlas covers birds currently breeding in Europe. It does not cover birds that only winter in Europe, or species that might move into Europe from North Africa, but that currently don’t breed in Europe.
MAIN FINDINGS OF THE ATLAS
The Atlas predicts that (under the climate change scenario used, of a 3.3°C global increase) the potential future range of the average European bird species will shift by nearly 550-km north-east by the end of this century AND will reduce in size by a fifth. Depending on whether immediate action is taken (or not) to reduce climate change, these shifts could be bigger or smaller.
More species look set to lose than to gain from projected climatic change. For some species, there is not even an overlap between their current range and their potential future range; and for a few, there is no future potential range left in Europe at all. The average overlap is 40%. If species can not move to new breeding areas ‘created’ by climate change, then this represents a serious problem as they will only be able to occupy the overlap areas with their present range. This will mean that for many species, they will thus end up with very little remaining breeding range.
Some bird species that are currently found only in Europe, or that have only small populations elsewhere, are expected to run a significantly increased risk of extinction.
Arctic and sub-Arctic birds and some Iberian species are projected to suffer the greatest potential range loss.
RECOMMENDATIONS
We must act to curb climate change. A 3.3°C average temperature rise risks catastrophic impacts on wildlife.
We must make wildlife resilient to the impacts of climate change. This will require increased investment in protected areas and the wider countryside, to secure healthy populations – wildlife that is already stressed will be ill-equipped to cope with climate change.
We must also accommodate expected changes in distribution. More space is needed in which natural habitats can develop or be managed to provide the scope for species to shift their ranges. New habitat is needed both as large blocks and also more widely spread through the countryside to allow species to move more readily between core areas.
We have many of the instruments we need to help wildlife. In particular, full and imaginative implementation of the EU Birds and Habitats Directives can help wildlife both inside and outside protected areas.
INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS
The Atlas was written by Professors Brian Huntley (Durham University) and Rhys Green (RSPB [BirdLife UK] and the University of Cambridge), and Doctors Yvonne Collingham and Steve Willis (both Durham University). It has been published by Lynx Editions in partnership with RSPB (BirdLife UK)/BirdLife International and Durham University. Several other organisations have been closely involved, particularly the European Bird Census Council (EBCC). To order the publication, please click here.
Please click here to read the press release regarding the launch of the Climatic Atlas in Malta.